Tag Archives: index

Banks may be cheap now, but…

Cash is king. Yes, during financial turmoil like this when stock markets all over the world are sinking, having cash is the key. According to The Straits Times on 20 January 2016, just last year alone, about US$735 billion left emerging market. China accounted for $676 billion which formed the bulk of the outflow. Similarly, the fund inflow last year was about US$231 billion against US$1.2 billion per year from 2010 to 2014.

On the corporate front, banks are natural victims during times of liquidity crunch too. Most bank share prices have sunk more than 30% from their recent high when the ST index hit 3500. Right now, banks are trading near or below their book value (BV). Exactly, five months ago, I had written in my blog that there was always a possibility that banks might start to raise funds through rights issue if the turmoil persists. So far, none of the banks have raised alarm, but still it is possible if banks deem it fit to do so. After all, there were past precedence of fund raising activities during financial crises. For example, DBS raised S$4.2b in end 2008 through 1-2 rights issue. Similarly, OCBC and UOB raised $1 billion each through preference shares issue. In a similar way, during Asian financial crisis in 1998, DBS acquired the POSB. Looking ahead, it is still a possibility especially during such times when other banks or companies may fall into bad times. Such huge fund raising activities can come in handy for future acquisitions.

Brennen has been investing in the stock market for 26 years. He trains occasionally and is a managing partner for BP Wealth Learning Centre. He is also the author of the book – “Building Wealth Together Through Stocks” which is available in both soft and hardcopy.

Market movement (这星期股市迈动)

经过好几个星期的逐渐下泄之后,股市终于稳住阵脚。上个星期五闭市虽然稍微跌破2800点水平,但过去五天交易日当中,快速收回失地,把指数推上接近3000点水平,闭市时指数为2998.5点。仅仅五天交易日就上扬了205.35点,上升幅度7.4%。区域及亚太股:印尼、马来西亚、香港及日本都不例外,上升幅度4.0%-9.0%不等。只有南韩和台湾股市上升较微小,为2.5%及1.7%。就连渡过了黄金周假期的上海股市在星期五第一天交易日也上升了4.3%。

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那到底什么缘故把这淡静底迷的股市转变成这样活跃的市场呢?其实市场预测非常难于捉摸,股民的心态转变非常难于预料。本人觉得原因只有单一:美国联邦处局再三考量之后。把原本要提高股息的决定无期限延后。理由为中国的经济快速缓慢,可能会导致美国经济的衰竭,所以不敢条理清晰,暂时不把利息提高。因此本来的坏消息就被列为利好消息,把股市带来冲击。股息的延后也当然导致美金兑其他国家汇率偏低,所以许多发展中国家的货币也开始稳定,股市回升。

当然股市是往前看,下星期会有什么走向?除非发生不可预料的大事件,下来几个星期应该不会有巨大波动,市场应该利用这短期的时间消化或等候公司的第三季度的收盈成绩发晓。市场预测可能是第三季度的收盈表现比第二季度来的差。如果事实上没有比预期差,那可能指数会偏高一些,相对的,如果第三季度收盈非常糟糕,那当然会导致股指偏低。

(以上的预测只是写者的个人看法,不可当为读者买卖股票决定的任何考量。)

[写者拥有26年买卖股票经验,他最近也写了一本书,书名为<Making Money Together Through Stock>。读者可以上网站 www.bpwlc.com.sg 购纸字本或上网站 www.investingnote.com 购买电子本。]