What can we expect from the American election?

Now that the American election is over, and Donald Trump has been announced to be the president-elect. The inauguration is scheduled to be on 20 January 2017. As a biggest economy in the world, we can expect big event changes to have a bearing on the many smaller economies. Certainly, the promises made by Donald Trump during his campaigns would be closely followed, as they may become the new government policies during the term of the new president. Of course, one may argue that these may be promises, and they may not be fulfilled or at most partially fulfilled after looking at the cost-benefits of all these promises. After all, until the fate was sealed on last Thursday, Donald Trump had been an underdog in this neck-to-neck race with Hillary Clinton. To change the odds of winning this election, he might have to resort to populist promises to win votes.

 

However, as investors, we tend to make anticipations of the future to guide us in our buy or sell decisions. So the closest or best clues would be to go along the lines of his background as well as to rely on his promises during the campaigns. As it is, he has been a real estate magnate businessman with zero political back-ground, many would have expected that he would be especially focused on infrastructure developments. These constructions would likely to bring about inflation resulting in FED hiking up interest rates more aggressively. So in all likelihood, our bank interest rates would also perk up in time to come. As it is in the last few days, the local bank stocks such as DBS, OCBC and UOB were holding up relatively well while many local stocks were on a down-trend. In particular, DBS advanced $1.20 or about 8% in the last two days on Thursday and Friday. Conversely, the interest rates sensitive stocks such as bonds, REITs, property counters as well as many debt-laden companies were hit quite badly. Many emerging market currencies are also affected as funds are expected to repatriate back to US in search of higher interest rates. Thus many Asian currencies have also been on the downward trend. In fact, companies, especially the debt-laden ones that borrowed or purchased goods in US dollar are likely to be hardest hit. Consequently, many Indonesian company stock prices fell very hard. They purchased goods in US dollars and sold locally in rupiahs. Stocks like Jardine C&C, which held 50% of Astra shares, had already retreated about 10%. This situation is likely to continue as long as the spectre of interest rate hikes remains in the mind of investors.

 

The other significant factor mentioned in his presidential campaign was pro-American, pro-white policies that point toward protectionism. This means that many economies depending on US for trade will be also affected. These countries include Indonesia, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam and even Singapore. Furthermore, with their respective currencies retreating against the US dollars, it is likely to make things very expensive for these countries. Certainly the respective stock markets are not going to be spared as well. The fear factor should likely continue to weigh on the Asian stock markets in the short term.

 

While the situation looks grim, it is only based on anticipation. The reality may not turn out to be this way after more detailed review of those promises. It could even be that the President may decide to soften his stance on free trades after his inauguration.

 

So, end of the day, it is still important to continue to stick to our long term-plan in building our stock portfolio. The fear factor may even present interesting opportunities for us to buy stocks that are beyond our reach during euphoria.      

Good luck!

Brennen has been investing in the stock market for 26 years. He trains occasionally and is a managing partner for BP Wealth Learning Centre. He is also the author of the book – “Building Wealth Together Through Stocks” which is available in both soft and hardcopy.