Category Archives: Z-INVESTMENTS

Keppel Corporation & Sembcorp Marine

The memorandum of Understanding (MOUs) As many have expected, Keppel Corporation (Keppel) and Sembcorp Marine (SMM) have finally decided to combine their resources and expertise that they have built up in the offshore and marine (O&M) space. The combined entity … Continue reading

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Singapore Airlines (MCBs – 2nd tranche)

Now that the verdict is out. Singapore Airlines (SIA) has decided to exercise the option to raise the S$6.2 billion Mandatory Convertible Bonds (MCBs) in June 2021. This option had been proposed and been agreed upon by the SIA shareholders … Continue reading

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Investing psychology : averaging up

I had a very brief conversation over lunch with a friend just several weeks ago. After an exchange of pleasantries and knowing that he invests in stocks, it was natural that our talking conversation centred around stocks. I asked him … Continue reading

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Yangzijiang – quietly moving upwards

Banks have been doing extremely well. They have indeed helped the bank-heavy Straits Times Index (STI) to climb about 22.6% since start of Covid-19 pandemic measured from from beginning March till December 2020. Today it stands at 3200.26. Other than … Continue reading

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ComfortDelgro Ltd

Since the last blog on ComfortDelgro, the economy has been on the mend. As more people get vaccinated and with the spread within the community relatively well-controlled. Companies now have the liberty to get up to 75% of their their … Continue reading

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The banks: DBS, OCBC and UOB

This week the banks were doing well. Bank stocks seemed to be defying gravity against the backdrop of retreating technology stocks, the lack-lustre REITs counters and, very prominently, the declining US market. The trio, namely DBS, OCBC and UOB pushed … Continue reading

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Comfort Delgro FY2020 – Looking for the bottom again

Comfort Delgro (CDG) recently released its FY2020. The top-line revenue dropped 17.2%. Without the government relief, the revenue drop is higher at 21.6%. In an industry that is not able to defray its operating cost very significantly, the operating profit … Continue reading

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Keppel Corporation – Is the merger still on the cards?

Just recently, Keppel Corporation announced a huge loss of $506m for FY2020, which resulted in its share price sliding for 6 consecutive days from $5.70 to $4.90 on 1 February 2021. Since then, it has been struggling around the $5.00 … Continue reading

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Singapore Press Holding (新加坡报业控股)

新加坡报业控股 (简称报业控股)在2020年财政年度第一次出现赤字,亏损额为8,367万新元。其实,报业控股的状况,许多人应该早于意料。互联网的发明,带给印版媒体的伤害非常严重,把本来稳如泰山,高枕无忧的报业控股核心业务摧毁。我们所得到的新闻及信息不再是从报章或电台吸取。我们一旦上网就能够在第一时间内吸取到世界各地的最新消息,隔天上报的新闻已经成为历史,没有新鲜感了。 其实再早前,美国的 Washington Post, 英国的 Financial Times, 法国的 Le Figaro 等报章已经开始经历读者人数下降的趋势。那时报业控股似乎还没受到打击。在2016 年一月,还公布将在三月调高礼拜六海峡时报报价一毛钱。也因如此,报业控股股价也跟随上升,稳住站脚。还好,乘时机还早,以平均价3.96元快速的把手上的数千股套现,一股不留。那时觉得可惜,从2009年世界金融风暴后所累积到2016年,只能够得到区区一千多新元利润 (年底分红不算在内),但回顾起来,觉得那其实是最佳做法。如果保留到现在,亏损额将是75%。 我觉得许多股东其实已经领悟到报业控股的核心业务已经受了威胁,只是心理上不舍得脱离它丰厚的年底分红。那时候,报业控股所配发的股息相等于6%股息收益率,也是少数非房地产信托所能够分发高股息的公司。有些刚入股的投资者,还以为因股价趋软,捡到了便宜货,哪知道所分发的红利需要成上十多倍才能够抵消股价的总跌幅。换言之,公司未来的十几年,必须每年分发同样金额的分红才能够彻底补偿股价跌幅,根本不划算。股价一直滑落当然也意味以后的年底分红也即将减少,构成了左右被打的僵局。 业务分析 我估计报业控股的高级管理员也预估到互联网所带来的伤害,只是在临时没有办法找到对策缓解眼前的危机。印版媒体已经不再是二十年前的必需品。传媒管道不再是单靠印版和广播途径,光是电脑手机就有好几个社交媒体途径能够发送信息。 读者人数减少直接影响到广告收费,形成了恶性循环。所以,这几年来报业控股媒体收入一直滑落,根本无法挽救。对外发展更是死路一条,因为国外媒体公司也面临同样问题。 其实在2017 的其中一篇博客,我提到报业控股一定要再寻找另一个门路,希望能够补充那正在滑落中的媒体收入。报业控股的高级管理员也因该早已知道这个问题。所以,这几年来一直再开发房地资产板块。可是这门投资必须付出代价,需要一笔膨大的资金才能够取得大回收来补偿正在滑落中的媒体收入。不只如此,回报速度也必须特快。所以近年来报业控股的负债迅速高涨,投资现金流量也一直处在负数。无形中,报业控股也变成了房地产投资公司,相类似于房地产投资信托。 虽然产业收入逐渐上升,但到现在还是无法补偿媒体收入的萎缩。所以,近年来的总收入也一直滑落。况且,负债累累,导致股价及分红纷纷下滑。今年所发生的冠病疫情,使报业控股问题加重,所以在短期内难于扭转局势。 股价走势 也因为许多不良因素打成一片,导致股价迅速滑落。在11月初期滑落到每股一块钱。至今已从每股一元回弹了25% 到大约 $1.25。其实在刚公布的财政年报导,表现欠佳, 但股价只是跌了几分钱,但隔天又再回弹。除非接下来的几个季度发表的消息比预料差,股价可能已经见底。但即使见了低也不代表它会迅速高涨。以现在相当于房产信托模式, 我觉得股价高涨的机率也不大。产业管理不是报业控股的长处,不论是老人院或学生宿舍,报业控股还是需要聘用另外一家管理公司来执行任务。况且,我一向来也对房地产信托没有抱着巨大兴趣,因该不会再投资。 Brennen has been investing in the stock market for 30 years. He trains … Continue reading

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Bank scrip dividends – Good or no good?

[Abstract – The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed many companies in an effort to conserve cash to maintain liquidity. Consequently, many companies, have introduced the scrip dividend scheme in hope to beef up company cash hoards to cushion this trying time. … Continue reading

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